Spezia 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Spezia against 1.40 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 35% versus Juve Stabia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 35% | Juve Stabia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.83 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.301 / defence 0.780 | Juve Stabia attack 0.983 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.040. Spezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Spezia's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Spezia games / 20 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Juve Stabia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Juve Stabia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Spezia 1.83 / Juve Stabia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.301 / def 0.780 | Juve Stabia attack 0.983 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Spezia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Spezia vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Spezia 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Spezia vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Juve Stabia part of?
Spezia vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 60% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Spezia and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Spezia and Juve Stabia in?
Spezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.30) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.98x) against Spezia's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.90
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.63
0.80
Juve Stabia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
44.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Spezia and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Spezia and 0.80 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 10W 8D 2L from 20 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 5L across 20 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spezia by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juve Stabia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 7W 2D 0L from 9 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Spezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 2W 5D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Juve Stabia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 10W 8D 2L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Juve Stabia away?
Spezia's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 2.56 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Spezia or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Juve Stabia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 44%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spezia) and 56% (Juve Stabia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 33%; Juve Stabia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Spezia's recent matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Spezia's matches and 56% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Spezia and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 21, as Spezia and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.83 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.78 against Juve Stabia attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 35%, Juve Stabia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.