Sampdoria 2-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cosenza travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sampdoria have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Cosenza's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 49% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 43% | Cosenza 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sampdoria surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.80 xG and Cosenza 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.814 / defence 1.396 | Cosenza attack 0.929 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.180. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.396 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 9 games and Cosenza's last 47.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 16% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 52%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 6.11 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 1.94. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 80% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 16% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sampdoria 0.80 / Cosenza 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.814 / def 1.396 | Cosenza attack 0.929 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Cosenza xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Cosenza kick off?
Sampdoria vs Cosenza kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Sampdoria 2 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Sampdoria vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Cosenza part of?
Sampdoria vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 16% chance of winning, Cosenza a 52% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sampdoria and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sampdoria vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.81) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 9 games and Cosenza's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
16%
6.11
32%
3.12
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.32
1.53
Cosenza xG
6.11
16%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
4%
28.18
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 15.0 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.53 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 4W 13D 30L from 47 games, a 0.53 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 19L across 47 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 1W 7D 15L from their last 23 home games — 0.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 3W 8D 12L across their last 23 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.91 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 4W 13D 30L in their last 47 games (0.53 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Cosenza away?
Cosenza's away record (0.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.43 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cosenza?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Sampdoria 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Cosenza?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 48%, Cosenza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sampdoria) and 35% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 52% of games; Cosenza in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 48% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sampdoria's recent games and 35% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 61% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Cosenza 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.80 xG and Cosenza 1.53 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.81 / defence 1.40 against Cosenza attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 16% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 52%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 43%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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