Parma 2-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Parma take on Como.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Como make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Parma's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Parma at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Como (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Como away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Parma edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Parma 0–2 Como — a Como win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Como half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 46% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 41% | Como 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.15 xG and Como 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.103 / defence 0.770 | Como attack 1.030 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.192. Parma have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Como's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 47 games and Como's last 46.
Result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 38% | Como 26%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.75 | Draw 2.66 | Como 3.84. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Como's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 50% (last 10 home games) | Como 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Como | Competition: Serie B, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 38% | Como 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Parma 1.15 / Como 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.103 / def 0.770 | Como attack 1.030 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Como xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Como FAQs
What time does Parma vs Como kick off?
Parma vs Como kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Como?
Parma 2 - 1 Como.
Where is Parma vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Como part of?
Parma vs Como is a Serie B fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 36% chance of winning, Como a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Como?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Como will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Parma vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.10) and Como's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.03x) against Parma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 47 games and Como's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
38%
2.66
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Parma xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Como xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Como Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Parma and 0.95 for Como, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 11D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (14W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Parma against 1.33 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 23 away games (4W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Como
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Como (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Parma vs Como Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Como in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 22W 11D 13L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Como have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Como away?
Parma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.87 PPG; Como away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Como in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Como have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Parma
3
Draws
4
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Como H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Como?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 3, Como have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Como last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Como 2-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 39%, Como 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 44% (Como).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Como in 35%; Parma have failed to score in 30% of games; Como in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Como Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Como matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Parma's recent matches and 48% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Como matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 44% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Como matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Parma's recent matches and 70% of Como's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Como 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Como 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.15 xG and Como 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Como attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 36% | Draw 38% | Como 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 41%, Como 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.67 PPG, Como 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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