Salernitana 1-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio Arechi to take on Salernitana. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Salernitana — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's away record: 2W 5D 1L from 8 road trips in Serie B this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salernitana 1.00 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 56% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 44% | Juve Stabia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.38 xG and Juve Stabia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.008 / defence 1.296 | Juve Stabia attack 0.919 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.086. Data: 16 Salernitana games / 16 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 37% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 32%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Juve Stabia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salernitana as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | Juve Stabia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 37% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Salernitana 1.38 / Juve Stabia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.008 / def 1.296 | Juve Stabia attack 0.919 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Juve Stabia xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Salernitana vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Juve Stabia?
Salernitana 1 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Salernitana vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Juve Stabia part of?
Salernitana vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 37% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Salernitana and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Juve Stabia in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (1.01) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
37%
2.74
31%
3.23
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Juve Stabia xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.29 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Salernitana have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 5D 7L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia's form line: 5W 7D 4L from 16 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 1.06 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 5D 1L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.06 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Juve Stabia away?
Salernitana's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.38 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Juve Stabia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Salernitana
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Juve Stabia 1-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 62%, Juve Stabia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Salernitana) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 38%; Salernitana have failed to score in 38% of games; Juve Stabia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Salernitana's games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Salernitana's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Salernitana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.38 xG and Juve Stabia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against Juve Stabia attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 37% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 32%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 44%, Juve Stabia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 1.06 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.