Pisa vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Modena (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pisa face Modena.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Modena are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pisa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Modena hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Modena have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.

Modena half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 42% versus Modena 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Modena 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.93 xG and Modena 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.805 / defence 1.044 | Modena attack 1.176 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 2 Pisa games / 40 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Pisa 23% | Draw 29% | Modena 48%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 2.08. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 60% | Modena 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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