Pisa 3-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pisa at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Feralpisalo.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Pisa host Feralpisalo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Pisa have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Pisa have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Feralpisalo have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.10 (Feralpisalo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pisa's games and 60% of Feralpisalo's (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pisa have won 1, Feralpisalo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Pisa 1–0 Feralpisalo — a Pisa win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 66% versus Feralpisalo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Feralpisalo 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.58 xG and Feralpisalo 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.166 / defence 1.126 | Feralpisalo attack 0.934 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.244. Data: built from Pisa's last 70 games and Feralpisalo's last 32.

Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 30%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.37 | Draw 3.61 | Feralpisalo 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights