Pisa vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Pisa welcome Benevento to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie B matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Pisa) versus 0.33 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Benevento in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Pisa have won 3, Benevento 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benevento in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 33% versus Benevento 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 67% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.19 xG and Benevento 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.771 / defence 1.080 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Pisa's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pisa games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 30% | Benevento 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 60% | Benevento 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 30% | Benevento 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Pisa 1.19 / Benevento 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.771 / def 1.080 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Benevento kick off?
Pisa vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Benevento part of?
Pisa vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 43% chance of winning, Benevento a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pisa and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 3W | Draws 1 | Benevento 2W.
What form are Pisa and Benevento in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.77x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.35
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.06
0.87
Benevento xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pisa and 0.87 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Benevento in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Pisa or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benevento in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Benevento runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
1
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Benevento?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Benevento have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Benevento?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 33%, Benevento 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pisa) and 33% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pisa have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pisa's recent matches and 67% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pisa's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Benevento tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.