Palermo 5-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Modena at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Modena — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.50 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Modena and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 48% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 34% | Modena 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.18 xG and Modena 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.848 / defence 0.922 | Modena attack 0.960 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 0.951. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Palermo games / 29 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 43% | Draw 33% | Modena 25%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 40% | Modena 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 43% | Draw 33% | Modena 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Palermo 1.18 / Modena 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.848 / def 0.922 | Modena attack 0.960 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.155 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Palermo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Modena xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Modena kick off?
Palermo vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Modena?
Palermo 5 - 2 Modena.
Where is Palermo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Modena part of?
Palermo vs Modena is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 43% chance of winning, Modena a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Palermo and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 0W.
What form are Palermo and Modena in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Modena (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.85) and Modena's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.07
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.02
0.84
Modena xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Palermo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Palermo and 0.84 for Modena, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 9W 12D 8L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Modena's form line: 11W 5D 13L from 29 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.34 PPG, Modena on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
On the road, Modena have gone 5W 1D 8L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.34 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Modena in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 9W 12D 8L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Modena have gone 11W 5D 13L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Modena away?
Palermo's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.64 PPG; Modena away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Palermo or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Modena in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Modena runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Modena specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Modena have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Modena?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 36%, Modena 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Palermo) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 36% of games; Modena in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Palermo's recent matches and 57% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Palermo's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Modena tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Modena in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Modena 5-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.18 xG and Modena 0.84 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Modena attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 43% | Draw 33% | Modena 25%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 34%, Modena 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.34 PPG, Modena 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.