Palermo vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Palermo at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Benevento encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Palermo and Benevento meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.

Benevento have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.63 in Palermo's favour (2.20 vs 1.57) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.

Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 71% and Benevento 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 57% | Benevento 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.54 xG and Benevento 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.195 / defence 0.867 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Palermo games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 29% | Benevento 18%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 5.56. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 50% | Benevento 57%.

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