Padova vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Padova at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo.
Arezzo (all games): 2W 0D 2L across 4 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Padova 75% and Arezzo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 50% | Arezzo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.50 xG and Arezzo 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.861 / defence 0.866 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.133. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Padova games / 4 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 53% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 21%. Fair-value odds: Padova 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Arezzo 4.76. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 40% | Arezzo 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 53% | Draw 27% | Arezzo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Padova 1.50 / Arezzo 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.861 / def 0.866 | Arezzo attack 0.850 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Padova (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Arezzo xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Arezzo kick off?
Padova vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Arezzo part of?
Padova vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 53% chance of winning, Arezzo a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Padova and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Arezzo in?
Padova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Arezzo (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.86) and Arezzo's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arezzo's attack (0.85x) against Padova's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 43/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.74
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Padova xG
Total xG
2.33
0.83
Arezzo xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Padova and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Padova and 0.83 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Padova's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arezzo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Padova heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Padova have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 75%, Arezzo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Padova and 75% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Arezzo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Padova's games and 50% of Arezzo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Padova's matches and 75% of Arezzo's.
Do Padova and Arezzo tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.