Cosenza 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Frosinone at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 1.20 PPG versus Frosinone's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 1, Frosinone 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Cosenza winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 55% versus Frosinone 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 38% | Frosinone 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.16 xG and Frosinone 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.816 / defence 0.974 | Frosinone attack 0.619 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.107. Data: 53 Cosenza games / 15 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 45% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 19%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Frosinone 5.26. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 45% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Cosenza 1.16 / Frosinone 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.816 / def 0.974 | Frosinone attack 0.619 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Frosinone xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Frosinone kick off?
Cosenza vs Frosinone kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Cosenza 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Cosenza vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Frosinone part of?
Cosenza vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 45% chance of winning, Frosinone a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cosenza and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Frosinone?
Record (4 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Frosinone in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
45%
2.22
36%
2.76
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.83
0.67
Frosinone xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.67 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 22D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 0.91 PPG from 53 outings (10W 18D 25L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.26 PPG, Frosinone on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 6W 11D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 0.58 points per game from 26 outings (2W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.04 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 15W 22D 16L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 10W 18D 25L in their last 53 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Frosinone away?
Cosenza's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.12 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Frosinone 2-2 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 65%, Frosinone 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 46% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cosenza's games and 54% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 46% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.16 xG and Frosinone 0.67 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 0.62 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 45% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 19%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 38%, Frosinone 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.26 PPG, Frosinone 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.