Modena 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 16 as Modena welcome Salernitana to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Modena) versus 1.00 (Salernitana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Salernitana in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Salernitana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 45% | Salernitana 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.85 xG and Salernitana 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.140 / defence 1.061 | Salernitana attack 0.737 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Modena games / 15 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 58% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 15%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Salernitana 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Modena (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Salernitana 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 58% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.85 / Salernitana 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.140 / def 1.061 | Salernitana attack 0.737 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Modena (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Salernitana xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Salernitana kick off?
Modena vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Salernitana?
Modena 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Modena vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Salernitana part of?
Modena vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 58% chance of winning, Salernitana a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Salernitana in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.14x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.69
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Modena xG
Total xG
2.71
0.86
Salernitana xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
42.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Modena and 0.86 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena's recent record stands at 13W 24D 16L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 6W 15D 32L across 53 games — 0.62 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Modena have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 2W 8D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.92 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 13W 24D 16L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 6W 15D 32L in their last 53 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Salernitana away?
Modena's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.35 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Salernitana 1-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Salernitana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Modena) and 58% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Salernitana in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 46% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Modena's recent games and 58% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Salernitana tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 16, as Modena and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.85 xG and Salernitana 0.86 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Modena fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Salernitana attack 0.74 / defence 1.31, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 58% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 15%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 45%, Salernitana 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.