Juve Stabia 1-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cesena at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cesena have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cesena away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Juve Stabia, 0.90 for Cesena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Juve Stabia are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Juve Stabia winning.
The historical record gives Juve Stabia a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juve Stabia 57% and Cesena 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Cesena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.14 xG and Cesena 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.850 / defence 1.173 | Cesena attack 0.983 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Juve Stabia games / 42 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 27% | Cesena 41%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Cesena 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cesena are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cesena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 27% | Cesena 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Juve Stabia 1.14 / Cesena 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.850 / def 1.173 | Cesena attack 0.983 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Cesena (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Cesena xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cesena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cesena kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Juve Stabia 1 - 1 Cesena.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cesena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 32% chance of winning, Cesena a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
Record (4 meetings): Juve Stabia 3W | Draws 1 | Cesena 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cesena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Cesena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cesena's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.98x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.70
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.48
1.34
Cesena xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.34 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 13W 17D 12L from 42 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 16L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.24 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 8W 8D 3L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.21 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cesena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 17D 12L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Cesena have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cesena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.68 PPG; Cesena away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 3, Cesena have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 53%, Cesena 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Juve Stabia) and 47% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cesena in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 53% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 47% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cesena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cesena in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Cesena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Cesena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.14 xG and Cesena 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Cesena attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 27% | Cesena 41%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 48%, Cesena 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cesena's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.33 PPG, Cesena 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.