Juve Stabia 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juve Stabia face Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Brescia at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 home games (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brescia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brescia away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.00 PPG versus Brescia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Brescia in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 46% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 54% | Brescia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.11 xG and Brescia 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.931 / defence 1.353 | Brescia attack 0.875 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.079. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 1.353 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 13 games and Brescia's last 51.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 38%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.39 | Draw 3.06 | Brescia 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 50% (last 6 home games) | Brescia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.11 / Brescia 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.931 / def 1.353 | Brescia attack 0.875 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Brescia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Brescia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Brescia kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Juve Stabia 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Brescia part of?
Juve Stabia vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 30% chance of winning, Brescia a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juve Stabia and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juve Stabia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.93) and Brescia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 13 games and Brescia's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
30%
3.39
33%
3.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.39
1.28
Brescia xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.28 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 6L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.31 PPG, Brescia on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across their last 6 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.38 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Brescia
Blended
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Juve Stabia vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Brescia have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Brescia away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.17 PPG; Brescia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Brescia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Brescia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 0, Brescia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2025: Brescia 0-0 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Brescia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Juve Stabia) and 33% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juve Stabia and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 33% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 67% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Brescia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.11 xG and Brescia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Brescia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 1.35 against Brescia attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 38%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 54%, Brescia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.31 PPG, Brescia 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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