Spezia 3-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spezia at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sudtirol at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Spezia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Spezia have won 1, Sudtirol 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 49% versus Sudtirol 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 43% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.38 xG and Sudtirol 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.101 / defence 0.831 | Sudtirol attack 0.864 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.059. Data: 51 Spezia games / 51 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 18%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 5.56. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 50% | Sudtirol 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 49% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Spezia 1.38 / Sudtirol 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.101 / def 0.831 | Sudtirol attack 0.864 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Spezia (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sudtirol xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Spezia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Spezia 3 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Spezia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sudtirol part of?
Spezia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 49% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Spezia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Spezia and Sudtirol in?
Spezia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
49%
2.04
33%
3.04
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.76
Sudtirol xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Spezia and 0.76 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia's recent record stands at 16W 23D 12L from 51 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 23L across 51 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.39 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 11W 9D 5L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 7W 6D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 16W 23D 12L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sudtirol away?
Spezia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.68 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Spezia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Spezia won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
2
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sudtirol?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 48%, Sudtirol 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Spezia) and 48% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 36% of games; Sudtirol in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Spezia's recent matches and 56% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Spezia's recent games and 48% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spezia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sudtirol 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.38 xG and Sudtirol 0.76 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Sudtirol attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 49% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 18%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 43%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.39 PPG, Sudtirol 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.