Juve Stabia vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Juve Stabia welcome Benevento to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Juve Stabia) versus 1.57 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Benevento trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 57% versus Benevento 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 43% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.34 xG and Benevento 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / defence 0.932 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 45 Juve Stabia games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 31% | Benevento 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 60% | Benevento 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 31% | Benevento 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Juve Stabia 1.34 / Benevento 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.039 / def 0.932 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Benevento xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Benevento kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Benevento part of?
Juve Stabia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 46% chance of winning, Benevento a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juve Stabia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Benevento in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.20
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.22
0.88
Benevento xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.88 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 3D 2L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.29 PPG, Benevento on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 57%, Benevento 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juve Stabia) and 43% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Juve Stabia's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 43% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Benevento tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benevento in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.