Cremonese 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cremonese take on Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Brescia meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 December 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Brescia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cremonese 3W, Brescia 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Brescia — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Brescia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.91 xG and Brescia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.813 / defence 1.100 | Brescia attack 0.723 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Data: 57 Cremonese games / 57 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Brescia 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Brescia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Cremonese 0.91 / Brescia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.813 / def 1.100 | Brescia attack 0.723 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Brescia xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Brescia kick off?
Cremonese vs Brescia kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Brescia?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Cremonese vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Brescia part of?
Cremonese vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 33% chance of winning, Brescia a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cremonese and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Brescia?
Record (5 meetings): Cremonese 3W | Draws 0 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Brescia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Brescia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.81) and Brescia's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.72x) against Cremonese's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.68
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.75
0.84
Brescia xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.6 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.84 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 58 games, going 27W 16D 15L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.26 PPG from 58 outings (17W 22D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (6W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.19 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 27W 16D 15L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Brescia have gone 17W 22D 19L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Brescia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.68 PPG; Brescia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Brescia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Brescia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Cremonese 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Brescia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Brescia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cremonese) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brescia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 57% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cremonese's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Brescia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 20, as Cremonese and Brescia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.91 xG and Brescia 0.84 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Brescia attack 0.72 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.