Cittadella 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cittadella face Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cittadella welcome Cosenza to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cittadella have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cittadella have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Cosenza have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cittadella) versus 1.10 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Cittadella's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Cittadella have won 1, Cosenza 1, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Cittadella 0–0 Cosenza — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 54% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 41% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.10 xG and Cosenza 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.816 / defence 1.008 | Cosenza attack 1.052 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.137. Data: built from Cittadella's last 46 games and Cosenza's last 46.
Result probabilities: Cittadella 31% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.18 | Draw 3.14 | Cosenza 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cittadella 70% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 31% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Cittadella 1.10 / Cosenza 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.816 / def 1.008 | Cosenza attack 1.052 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cosenza xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cittadella vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Cittadella vs Cosenza kick off?
Cittadella vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Cittadella vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cosenza part of?
Cittadella vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 31% chance of winning, Cosenza a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cittadella and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Cittadella vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cittadella's last 46 games and Cosenza's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.14
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Cosenza xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cittadella vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.21 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella's recent record stands at 13W 15D 18L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 16L across 46 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.17 PPG, Cosenza on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 7W 8D 7L from their last 22 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 6W 9D 7L across their last 22 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.17 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Cittadella (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cittadella
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Cittadella vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Cittadella and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 17D 16L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cosenza away?
Cittadella's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.32 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cosenza in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from January 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cittadella's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cittadella
5
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Cittadella vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cittadella have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cosenza?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 64%, Cosenza 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cittadella) and 23% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cittadella vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cittadella and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Cittadella's recent matches and 46% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cittadella and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cittadella's recent games and 23% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Cittadella's recent matches and 64% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella and Cosenza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.10 xG and Cosenza 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cosenza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Cosenza attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 31% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 41%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.17 PPG, Cosenza 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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