Carrarese 1-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mantova make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Carrarese (all games): 2W 1D 5L across 8 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi.
Mantova have collected 1.38 PPG across 8 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.88 vs 1.38 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 38% versus Mantova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 38% | Mantova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.35 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.750 / defence 0.944 | Mantova attack 0.826 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.189. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Carrarese games / 8 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Mantova 24%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Mantova 4.17. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 0% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Mantova 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Carrarese 1.35 / Mantova 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.750 / def 0.944 | Mantova attack 0.826 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mantova xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Mantova kick off?
Carrarese vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Mantova?
Carrarese 1 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Carrarese vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Mantova part of?
Carrarese vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 45% chance of winning, Mantova a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Carrarese and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Mantova in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Mantova (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Carrarese vs Mantova?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.83x) against Carrarese's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.20
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.27
0.93
Mantova xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.93 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mantova by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carrarese heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mantova's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Mantova in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Mantova have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Mantova away?
Carrarese's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.33 PPG; Mantova away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mantova in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Carrarese
3
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Mantova have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Mantova 1-1 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Carrarese) and 33% (Mantova) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Carrarese and 33% for Mantova.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 67% of games; Mantova in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Carrarese's recent matches and 33% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Carrarese's recent games and 33% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Mantova tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Mantova in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese and Mantova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 9, as Carrarese and Mantova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.35 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against Mantova attack 0.83 / defence 1.44, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 45% | Draw 31% | Mantova 24%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 38%, Mantova 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mantova arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.