Carrarese 0-4 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Carrarese take on Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carrarese have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Spezia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Carrarese have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Spezia in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Spezia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 33% versus Spezia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 29% | Spezia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.84 xG and Spezia 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.864 / defence 0.669 | Spezia attack 0.847 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.057. Spezia's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Carrarese games / 59 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 36% | Draw 43% | Spezia 22%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.78 | Draw 2.33 | Spezia 4.55. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.44. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.44 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.44 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 10% | Spezia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 36% | Draw 43% | Spezia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 28% | xG Carrarese 0.84 / Spezia 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.864 / def 0.669 | Spezia attack 0.847 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Spezia xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Spezia kick off?
Carrarese vs Spezia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Spezia?
Carrarese 0 - 4 Spezia.
Where is Carrarese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Spezia part of?
Carrarese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 36% chance of winning, Spezia a 22% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Carrarese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 0 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Spezia in?
Carrarese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Spezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.85x) against Carrarese's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
43%
2.34
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.44
0.60
Spezia xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.53
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.8 | 14.2 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.3%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.60 for Spezia, a combined total of 1.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 6D 8L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia's form line: 10W 9D 2L from 21 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spezia are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carrarese.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Spezia have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.43 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Spezia in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Spezia have gone 10W 9D 2L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Spezia away?
Carrarese's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 2.10 PPG; Spezia away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Spezia in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Carrarese go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carrarese
0
Draws
2
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 2, Spezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Carrarese 3-1 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 10% (Carrarese) and 20% (Spezia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Carrarese and 10% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Spezia in 60%; Carrarese have failed to score in 30% of games; Spezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 10% of Carrarese's recent matches and 20% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Carrarese's recent games and 10% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Spezia tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Spezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spezia run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Carrarese 0-4 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.84 xG and Spezia 0.60 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Spezia outscored their 0.60 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.86 / defence 0.67 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 36% | Draw 43% | Spezia 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 29%, Spezia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.