Carrarese 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Carrarese take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Carrarese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Pisa have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Pisa are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 31% versus Pisa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 31% | Pisa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.02 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.826 / defence 0.877 | Pisa attack 1.099 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.079. Data: 13 Carrarese games / 51 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 32% | Draw 36% | Pisa 33%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Pisa 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 17% | Pisa 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 32% | Draw 36% | Pisa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Carrarese 1.02 / Pisa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.826 / def 0.877 | Pisa attack 1.099 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pisa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Pisa kick off?
Carrarese vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Pisa?
Carrarese 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Carrarese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Pisa part of?
Carrarese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 32% chance of winning, Pisa a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Carrarese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Pisa in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Pisa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Carrarese vs Pisa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.83x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.10x) against Carrarese's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
36%
2.81
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Pisa xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.04 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 4D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Carrarese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Carrarese's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.77 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 62%.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.50 PPG; Pisa away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2025, when Pisa 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 17%, Pisa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Carrarese and 50% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 50% of games; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Carrarese's recent matches and 67% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Carrarese's recent games and 50% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Pisa tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Pisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.02 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against Pisa attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 32% | Draw 36% | Pisa 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 31%, Pisa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Carrarese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.