Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sudtirol are 0.50 PPG clear of Brescia in recent Serie B fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 56% versus Sudtirol 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 38% | Sudtirol 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.54 xG and Sudtirol 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.024 / defence 1.260 | Sudtirol attack 1.062 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.101. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Brescia games / 64 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 38% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 35%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sudtirol (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 80% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 38% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Brescia 1.54 / Sudtirol 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.024 / def 1.260 | Sudtirol attack 1.062 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Brescia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sudtirol xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Brescia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Brescia 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Brescia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Sudtirol part of?
Brescia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 38% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Brescia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Brescia and Sudtirol in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brescia's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.06x) against Brescia's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.64
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Brescia xG
Total xG
3.02
1.47
Sudtirol xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Brescia and 1.47 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia's recent record stands at 17W 26D 21L from 64 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 29L across 64 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Brescia against 1.17 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 9W 14D 8L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 17W 26D 21L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Sudtirol away?
Brescia's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.32 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Sudtirol?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 55%, Sudtirol 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Brescia) and 55% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Sudtirol in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Brescia's recent matches and 55% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Brescia's recent games and 55% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brescia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 27, as Brescia and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.54 xG and Sudtirol 1.47 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 38% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 35%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 38%, Sudtirol 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.20 PPG, Sudtirol 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.