Brescia 0-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 39%, yet in-form Juve Stabia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brescia vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Juve Stabia travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juve Stabia are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Juve Stabia and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 57% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 40% | Juve Stabia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.23 xG and Juve Stabia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.865 / defence 1.178 | Juve Stabia attack 0.781 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.156. Data: 73 Brescia games / 35 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 39% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 31%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Juve Stabia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 70% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 39% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Brescia 1.23 / Juve Stabia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.865 / def 1.178 | Juve Stabia attack 0.781 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Brescia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Juve Stabia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Brescia vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Juve Stabia?
Brescia 0 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Brescia vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Juve Stabia part of?
Brescia vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 39% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Brescia and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Brescia and Juve Stabia in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.86) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.25
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.29
1.06
Juve Stabia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Brescia and 1.06 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 8W 14D 13L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Juve Stabia's form line: 14W 11D 10L from 35 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brescia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 8D 6L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.17 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 8W 14D 13L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 14W 11D 10L in their last 35 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Juve Stabia away?
Brescia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.00 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Juve Stabia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 65%, Juve Stabia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Brescia) and 41% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Brescia's games and 59% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Brescia's recent games and 41% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brescia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 37, as Brescia and Juve Stabia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.23 xG and Juve Stabia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Juve Stabia attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 39% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 31%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 40%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.