Brescia 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ascoli travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia in Serie B (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Brescia — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Brescia at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Ascoli have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Ascoli's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Brescia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Brescia, 1 for Ascoli and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Brescia 3–4 Ascoli — a Ascoli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 46% versus Ascoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 32% | Ascoli 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.33 xG and Ascoli 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.884 / defence 0.806 | Ascoli attack 0.883 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Ascoli's defence rating of 1.419 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Data: built from Brescia's last 42 games and Ascoli's last 45.
Result probabilities: Brescia 46% | Draw 35% | Ascoli 19%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.19 | Draw 2.86 | Ascoli 5.14. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Brescia's last 10 home games and Ascoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brescia 40% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 46% | Draw 35% | Ascoli 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Brescia 1.33 / Ascoli 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.884 / def 0.806 | Ascoli attack 0.883 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Brescia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ascoli xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Ascoli kick off?
Brescia vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Ascoli?
Brescia 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Brescia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Ascoli part of?
Brescia vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 46% chance of winning, Ascoli a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Brescia and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Brescia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 42 games and Ascoli's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
46%
2.19
35%
2.86
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Ascoli xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Brescia and 0.81 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia's recent record stands at 11W 16D 17L from 44 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 19L across 44 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.11 PPG, Ascoli on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 7W 8D 7L from their last 22 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.05 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
Brescia (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Brescia vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 11W 16D 17L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Ascoli away?
Brescia's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.32 PPG; Ascoli away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Brescia's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Ascoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2024: Ascoli 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Ascoli?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 46%, Ascoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Brescia and 36% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Ascoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Brescia's recent matches and 46% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Brescia's recent games and 36% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 64% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Ascoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.33 xG and Ascoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.88 / defence 0.81 against Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 46% | Draw 35% | Ascoli 19%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 32%, Ascoli 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.11 PPG, Ascoli 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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