Benevento vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Virtus Entella at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.57 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 2D 1L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.57 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.50 (Virtus Entella). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Benevento in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 57% and Virtus Entella 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 43% | Virtus Entella 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.25 xG and Virtus Entella 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Virtus Entella attack 1.010 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Benevento games / 45 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 38%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Virtus Entella 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 80% | Virtus Entella 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Benevento 1.25 / Virtus Entella 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Virtus Entella attack 1.010 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Virtus Entella xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Benevento vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Virtus Entella part of?
Benevento vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 33% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Benevento and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Virtus Entella in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.03x the league average against Virtus Entella's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.39
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.62
1.37
Virtus Entella xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Benevento and 1.37 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.57 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benevento's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — Virtus Entella travel well.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Virtus Entella in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Virtus Entella away?
Benevento's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 1.75 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 75%, Virtus Entella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 50% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Virtus Entella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benevento's games and 50% of Virtus Entella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.