Benevento vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Benevento welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.30 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (10 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia trading profile (10 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Juve Stabia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.20 xG and Juve Stabia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.984 / defence 1.059 | Juve Stabia attack 0.946 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Benevento games / 48 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 35%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Juve Stabia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 83% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 33% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.20 / Juve Stabia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.984 / def 1.059 | Juve Stabia attack 0.946 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Juve Stabia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Benevento vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Juve Stabia part of?
Benevento vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 33% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Juve Stabia in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.98x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.19
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.43
1.24
Juve Stabia xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Benevento and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Benevento and 1.24 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.50 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Benevento's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.10 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Juve Stabia away?
Benevento's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.50 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Benevento or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 83%, Juve Stabia at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 33% (Juve Stabia).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Benevento's games and 67% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.