Avellino 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Avellino host Modena at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Avellino — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Avellino 1.60 PPG, Modena 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Avellino have won 0, Modena 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Avellino in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 51% versus Modena 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 46% | Modena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.16 xG and Modena 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.902 / defence 1.142 | Modena attack 0.996 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Data: 37 Avellino games / 75 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 60% | Modena 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Avellino 1.16 / Modena 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 0.902 / def 1.142 | Modena attack 0.996 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Modena (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Modena kick off?
Avellino vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Modena?
Avellino 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Avellino vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Modena part of?
Avellino vs Modena is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 33% chance of winning, Modena a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Avellino and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 0W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Avellino and Modena in?
Avellino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Avellino's attack rating (0.90) and Modena's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
33%
3.01
31%
3.18
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.37
1.21
Modena xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Avellino and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Avellino and 1.21 for Modena, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Avellino come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 10D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Avellino on 1.24 PPG, Modena on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Avellino's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Avellino are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.32 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Modena in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Modena in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Modena away?
Avellino's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.61 PPG; Modena away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Avellino or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Modena in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avellino
1
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 1, Modena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Avellino 1-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Modena?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 56%, Modena 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Avellino) and 33% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 33%; Avellino have failed to score in 28% of games; Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Avellino's recent matches and 44% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Avellino's recent games and 33% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Modena tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Modena in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.16 xG and Modena 1.21 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Avellino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 46%, Modena 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avellino 1.24 PPG, Modena 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.