Ascoli vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.71 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 0L across 4 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.71 for Ascoli, 1.30 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Pisa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 57% versus Pisa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 29% | Pisa 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.20 xG and Pisa 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.983 / defence 0.983 | Pisa attack 1.266 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Ascoli games / 7 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 28% | Pisa 44%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 75% | Pisa 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 28% | Pisa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Ascoli 1.20 / Pisa 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.983 / def 0.983 | Pisa attack 1.266 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Pisa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Pisa kick off?
Ascoli vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Pisa part of?
Ascoli vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 28% chance of winning, Pisa a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ascoli and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Ascoli 3W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Pisa in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.98) and Pisa's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.27x) against Ascoli's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
28%
3.61
28%
3.57
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.77
1.57
Pisa xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.32
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.57 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 3W 3D 1L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Ascoli against 1.86 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Ascoli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.86 PPG overall record — Pisa travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded. Pisa's attacking output running into Ascoli's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Pisa in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Pisa away?
Ascoli's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.33 PPG; Pisa away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Ascoli 2-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Pisa?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 67%, Pisa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Ascoli and 100% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pisa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ascoli's recent matches and 33% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Ascoli's matches and 100% of Pisa's.
Do Ascoli and Pisa tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.