Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 37%, yet in-form Ascoli provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ascoli vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Carrarese meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Serie B outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Ascoli's favour (3.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.23 xG and Carrarese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.875 / defence 1.150 | Carrarese attack 0.960 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.148. Data: 1 Ascoli games / 39 Carrarese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 36% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 37%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Carrarese 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ascoli (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 36% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ascoli 1.23 / Carrarese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.875 / def 1.150 | Carrarese attack 0.960 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Carrarese xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Carrarese kick off?
Ascoli vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Carrarese?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Ascoli vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Carrarese part of?
Ascoli vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 36% chance of winning, Carrarese a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ascoli and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Carrarese in?
Ascoli (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.88) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.96x) against Ascoli's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.71
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Carrarese xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.27 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ascoli come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Carrarese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Carrarese in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Carrarese?
From 1 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ascoli's games and 100% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ascoli's matches and 100% of Carrarese's.
Do Ascoli and Carrarese tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 2, as Ascoli and Carrarese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.23 xG and Carrarese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Carrarese attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 36% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 37%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 100%, Carrarese 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ascoli managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Carrarese conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.