Arezzo vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Città di Arezzo to face Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Arezzo (all games): 3W 1D 3L across 7 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo at Stadio Città di Arezzo this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.43 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Città di Arezzo this season.
Benevento have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.43 vs 1.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 57% versus Benevento 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arezzo 71% | Benevento 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 0.97 xG and Benevento 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.749 / defence 1.358 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Arezzo's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Arezzo games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 26% | Draw 32% | Benevento 42%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Arezzo 67% | Benevento 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Città di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 26% | Draw 32% | Benevento 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Arezzo 0.97 / Benevento 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.749 / def 1.358 | Benevento attack 0.748 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Benevento (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Benevento xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Benevento kick off?
Arezzo vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Benevento part of?
Arezzo vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 26% chance of winning, Benevento a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Arezzo and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Benevento in?
Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arezzo's attack at 0.75x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.75x) against Arezzo's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
26%
3.80
32%
3.16
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.25
1.28
Benevento xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.28 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arezzo's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Arezzo against 1.57 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arezzo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Benevento in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 57%, Benevento 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Arezzo) and 43% (Benevento). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Arezzo's games and 57% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arezzo vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Arezzo's matches and 43% of Benevento's.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.