Udinese 3-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Empoli at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Udinese — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Udinese's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Udinese, 1 for Empoli and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2024, ended Udinese 1–1 Empoli — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 63%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 60% versus Empoli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 44% | Empoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.71 xG and Empoli 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.982 / defence 1.115 | Empoli attack 0.994 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.315. Empoli's defence rating of 1.290 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Data: built from Udinese's last 62 games and Empoli's last 62.
Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 29% | Empoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.43 | Draw 3.50 | Empoli 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Udinese's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Udinese 50% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 29% | Empoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Udinese 1.71 / Empoli 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.982 / def 1.115 | Empoli attack 0.994 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Empoli xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Empoli kick off?
Udinese vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Udinese 3 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Udinese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Empoli part of?
Udinese vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 41% chance of winning, Empoli a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Udinese and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.98) and Empoli's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 62 games and Empoli's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.50
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.17
1.46
Empoli xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Udinese and 1.46 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 25D 23L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 13W 18D 31L from 62 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.08 PPG, Empoli on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 31 home games (6W 13D 12L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 7W 8D 16L from their last 31 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.82 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 14W 25D 23L in their last 62 games (1.08 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 18D 31L in their last 62 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Empoli away?
Udinese's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; Empoli away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won Udinese 4-1 Empoli.
Udinese's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Udinese
4
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2025: Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Empoli?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 61%, Empoli 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 42% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 26% of games; Empoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Empoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Udinese's games and 55% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 42% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Udinese's recent matches and 77% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Empoli 3-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.71 xG and Empoli 1.46 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Empoli attack 0.99 / defence 1.29, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 41% | Draw 29% | Empoli 30%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 44%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.08 PPG, Empoli 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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