Bologna 3-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Torino at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.70 PPG versus Torino's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bologna, 2 for Torino and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Torino in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Torino 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 46% | Torino 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.39 xG and Torino 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.116 / defence 0.875 | Torino attack 0.904 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.312. Data: 61 Bologna games / 62 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 33% | Torino 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Torino 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Torino 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 33% | Torino 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.39 / Torino 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.116 / def 0.875 | Torino attack 0.904 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Torino xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Torino kick off?
Bologna vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna 3 - 2 Torino.
Where is Bologna vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Torino part of?
Bologna vs Torino is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Torino a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
Record (7 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Torino 2W.
What form are Bologna and Torino in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Torino (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.12) and Torino's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.01
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Torino xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bologna and 1.04 for Torino, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 27W 25D 9L from 61 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 19W 23D 19L across 61 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torino heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 17W 10D 3L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Torino in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Torino in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 27W 25D 9L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Torino have gone 19W 23D 19L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Torino away?
Bologna's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.03 PPG; Torino away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Bologna or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Torino in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Torino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Torino?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 40%, Torino 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bologna) and 37% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Torino in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 37% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Torino tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Torino in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Torino 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Torino 3-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.39 xG and Torino 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Torino outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Torino attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 33% | Torino 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, Torino 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.