Udinese vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 1.00 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Bologna have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Udinese's 1, with 5 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.86 xG and Bologna 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.697 / defence 1.265 | Bologna attack 1.106 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Udinese's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Udinese games / 48 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 14% | Draw 20% | Bologna 66%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | Bologna 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 30% | Bologna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 14% | Draw 20% | Bologna 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 0.86 / Bologna 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.697 / def 1.265 | Bologna attack 1.106 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Bologna (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 14% chance of winning, Bologna a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 5 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.70x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.11x) against Udinese's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
14%
6.99
20%
5.07
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.96
2.10
Bologna xG
6.99
14%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
12%
8.17
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
2%
57.12
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Udinese and 2.10 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 9D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.46 PPG from 48 outings (20W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Udinese against 1.46 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 6W 5D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.79 points per game from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.31 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 24L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Bologna away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 38%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Udinese's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bologna in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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