Udinese vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Bologna encounter.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Udinese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Udinese haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bologna have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Bologna away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Udinese against 1.70 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Across the last 10 meetings, Bologna have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Udinese's 1, with 5 draws in the mix.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.

It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Udinese — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Bologna — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 45% versus Bologna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Bologna 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.09 xG and Bologna 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.888 / defence 0.917 | Bologna attack 1.100 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.179. Data: 38 Udinese games / 38 Bologna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 28% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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