Torino 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Torino at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
AS Roma (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Torino's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Torino, 2 for AS Roma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Torino 0–1 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 48% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 36% | AS Roma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.14 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.753 / defence 0.857 | AS Roma attack 0.971 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.123. Torino's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Torino's last 42 games and AS Roma's last 42.
Result probabilities: Torino 39% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 28%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.59 | Draw 3.01 | AS Roma 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Torino's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Torino 40% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 39% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Torino 1.14 / AS Roma 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.753 / def 0.857 | AS Roma attack 0.971 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Torino (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.93
AS Roma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Torino vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 39% chance of winning, AS Roma a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.97x) against Torino's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Torino's last 42 games and AS Roma's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.01
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Torino xG
Total xG
2.07
0.93
AS Roma xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Torino vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Torino and 0.93 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Torino have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 12D 14L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 19W 10D 13L from 42 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Torino against 1.60 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 20 home games (6W 7D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 6D 7L from their last 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.45 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
Torino (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Torino
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Torino vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.25 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Torino and AS Roma, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won Torino 0-3 AS Roma on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 5L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Torino vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 40%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Torino and 50% for AS Roma.
On the defensive side: Torino have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Torino vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Torino and AS Roma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Torino's recent matches and 65% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Torino and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Torino's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Torino's recent matches and 85% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and AS Roma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.14 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 39% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 28%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 36%, AS Roma 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.43 PPG, AS Roma 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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