Lecce 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecce face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Lecce (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Genoa have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Genoa away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Lecce, 1.70 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Lecce — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 55% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 33% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.40 xG and Genoa 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.996 / defence 0.886 | Genoa attack 0.750 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.173. Genoa's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Lecce's last 42 games and Genoa's last 4.
Result probabilities: Lecce 50% | Draw 31% | Genoa 19%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.00 | Draw 3.27 | Genoa 5.16. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lecce's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecce 40% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 50% | Draw 31% | Genoa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lecce 1.40 / Genoa 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.996 / def 0.886 | Genoa attack 0.750 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Lecce (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Genoa xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Genoa kick off?
Lecce vs Genoa kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Lecce vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Genoa part of?
Lecce vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 50% chance of winning, Genoa a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lecce and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lecce vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lecce's attack rating (1.00) and Genoa's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.75x) against Lecce's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 42 games and Genoa's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.27
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.18
0.78
Genoa xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lecce and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lecce and 0.78 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce's recent record stands at 10W 14D 18L from 42 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 8L across 42 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genoa by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 5W 8D 8L from their last 21 home games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 10W 5D 6L across their last 21 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.36 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
Lecce (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Lecce vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Genoa have gone 22W 12D 8L in their last 42 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.10 PPG; Genoa away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lecce or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Genoa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Lecce
2
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Genoa?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 2, Genoa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Lecce 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 67%, Genoa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lecce) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 38%; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lecce's recent matches and 43% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lecce's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lecce's recent matches and 67% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.40 xG and Genoa 0.78 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against Genoa attack 0.75 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 50% | Draw 31% | Genoa 19%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 33%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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