Parma 2-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Parma against 0.60 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Monza and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 67% versus Monza 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 56% | Monza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.42 xG and Monza 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.046 / defence 1.339 | Monza attack 0.825 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.330. Data: 17 Parma games / 55 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 25% | Monza 39%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Monza 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 90% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 36% | Draw 25% | Monza 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Parma 1.42 / Monza 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.046 / def 1.339 | Monza attack 0.825 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Monza (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Monza xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Monza kick off?
Parma vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 December 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Monza?
Parma 2 - 1 Monza.
Where is Parma vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Monza part of?
Parma vs Monza is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 36% chance of winning, Monza a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Parma and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 2 | Monza 0W.
What form are Parma and Monza in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.05) and Monza's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.82x) against Parma's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
36%
2.75
25%
4.03
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Parma xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
Monza xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Parma and 1.47 for Monza, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 55 games, going 24W 19D 12L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.00 PPG from 55 outings (12W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 12W 9D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (6W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Monza in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 24W 19D 12L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Monza have gone 12W 19D 24L in their last 55 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Monza away?
Parma's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.67 PPG; Monza away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Parma
4
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Monza?
From 5 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Monza have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Parma 1-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Monza?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 74%, Monza 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Parma) and 37% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Parma's games and 41% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Parma's recent games and 37% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Monza tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Monza in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Monza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Monza 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.42 xG and Monza 1.47 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.05 / defence 1.34 against Monza attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 36% | Draw 25% | Monza 39%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 56%, Monza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.