Parma 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Parma register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, AS Roma in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Parma, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–5 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 68% and AS Roma 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 56% | AS Roma 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.28 xG and AS Roma 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.928 / defence 1.406 | AS Roma attack 0.915 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.296. Data: 24 Parma games / 62 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 43%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Parma 90% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Parma 1.28 / AS Roma 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.928 / def 1.406 | AS Roma attack 0.915 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.67
AS Roma xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs AS Roma kick off?
Parma vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Parma 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Parma vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs AS Roma part of?
Parma vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 26% chance of winning, AS Roma a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Parma and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Parma and AS Roma in?
Parma (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.93) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Parma's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
26%
3.79
30%
3.31
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Parma xG
Total xG
2.95
1.67
AS Roma xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.06
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Parma and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Parma and 1.67 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 21D 16L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.56 PPG from 62 outings (27W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Parma against 1.56 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Parma's home form reads 14W 10D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.13 points per game from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.61 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 25W 21D 16L in their last 62 games (1.55 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or AS Roma away?
Parma's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.68 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 5-0 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
0
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Parma 2-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Parma, 64% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Parma) and 55% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Parma's games and 64% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Parma's recent games and 55% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and AS Roma tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.28 xG and AS Roma 1.67 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.93 / defence 1.41 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 43%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 56%, AS Roma 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.55 PPG, AS Roma 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.