Napoli 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Napoli face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Napoli (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.30 PPG lead over Udinese (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Napoli have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Udinese managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 3–1 with Napoli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Napoli and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Udinese — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 49% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 52% | Udinese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.983 / defence 0.727 | Udinese attack 0.870 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.314. Napoli's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Napoli games / 61 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 52% | Draw 31% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 5.88. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 30% | Udinese 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 52% | Draw 31% | Udinese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Napoli 1.57 / Udinese 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.983 / def 0.727 | Udinese attack 0.870 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Napoli (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Udinese xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Udinese kick off?
Napoli vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Napoli 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Napoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Udinese part of?
Napoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 52% chance of winning, Udinese a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Napoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
Record (7 meetings): Napoli 5W | Draws 2 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Napoli and Udinese in?
Napoli (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Napoli's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.87x) against Napoli's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
52%
1.92
31%
3.22
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.40
0.83
Udinese xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
4%
28.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Napoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Napoli and 0.83 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Napoli come into this having played 61 games, going 30W 17D 14L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.08 PPG from 61 outings (14W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Napoli's home form reads 15W 7D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 30W 17D 14L in their last 61 games (1.75 PPG), while Udinese have gone 14W 24D 23L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Udinese away?
Napoli's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.73 PPG; Udinese away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Napoli or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Udinese in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Udinese?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 50%, Udinese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Napoli) and 40% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Napoli have failed to score in 27% of games; Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Napoli's recent matches and 57% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Napoli's recent games and 40% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Udinese tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Udinese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 24, as Napoli and Udinese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.83 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Udinese attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 52% | Draw 31% | Udinese 17%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 52%, Udinese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.