Monza 2-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Lazio in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Monza have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lazio's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lazio's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Lazio edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Monza 1–1 Lazio — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lazio half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 47% versus Lazio 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 42% | Lazio 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.14 xG and Lazio 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.954 / defence 1.276 | Lazio attack 1.098 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.167. Monza's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lazio's projected output up. Data: built from Monza's last 72 games and Lazio's last 72.
Result probabilities: Monza 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.86 | Draw 3.84 | Lazio 2.08. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Monza's last 10 home games and Lazio's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Monza 1.14 / Lazio 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.954 / def 1.276 | Lazio attack 1.098 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Lazio (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Lazio xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Monza vs Lazio kick off?
Monza vs Lazio kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Lazio?
Monza 2 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Monza vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Lazio part of?
Monza vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 26% chance of winning, Lazio a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Monza and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monza vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.10x) against Monza's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 72 games and Lazio's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
26%
3.86
26%
3.84
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Monza xG
Total xG
2.78
1.64
Lazio xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
5%
19.79
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Monza and 1.64 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Monza have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 25W 21D 26L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 39W 12D 21L from 72 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 36 home games (13W 10D 13L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 19W 5D 12L from their last 36 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.43 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
Monza (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Monza vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Lazio in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Lazio have gone 39W 12D 21L in their last 72 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.36 PPG; Lazio away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Monza or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lazio in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won Lazio 5-1 Monza on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
5
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Lazio?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 0, Lazio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lazio 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 53%, Lazio 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Monza) and 42% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lazio in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Lazio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Monza's recent matches and 39% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Monza's recent games and 42% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Monza's recent matches and 72% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Lazio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza and Lazio finished level at 2-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.14 xG and Lazio 1.64 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Lazio attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 42%, Lazio 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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