Cagliari 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lecce at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Cagliari have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lecce — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Lecce have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.40 PPG, Lecce 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Cagliari, 0 for Lecce and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2024, ended Cagliari 1–1 Lecce — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Lecce in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Lecce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Lecce 36%). Note also that Lecce surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Cagliari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.54 xG and Lecce 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.070 / defence 1.267 | Lecce attack 0.866 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.150. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lecce's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 34 games and Lecce's last 72.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 44% | Draw 26% | Lecce 31%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.29 | Draw 3.91 | Lecce 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 90% (last 10 home games) | Lecce 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 44% | Draw 26% | Lecce 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Cagliari 1.54 / Lecce 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.070 / def 1.267 | Lecce attack 0.866 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lecce xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Lecce FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Lecce kick off?
Cagliari vs Lecce kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Cagliari vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lecce part of?
Cagliari vs Lecce is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 44% chance of winning, Lecce a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cagliari and Lecce will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cagliari vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 34 games and Lecce's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.91
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.81
1.26
Lecce xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.26 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 72 games, going 22W 27D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.00 PPG from 72 outings (16W 24D 32L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.29 PPG, Lecce on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 17W 13D 6L across their last 36 home games, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 36 away games (7W 10D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.89 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
Cagliari (Home) vs Lecce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Cagliari vs Lecce Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Lecce in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 22W 27D 23L in their last 72 games (1.29 PPG), while Lecce have gone 16W 24D 32L in their last 72 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lecce away?
Cagliari's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.78 PPG; Lecce away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Jan 2025, when Cagliari won Cagliari 4-1 Lecce.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Cagliari
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Lecce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lecce?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 3, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lecce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Cagliari 1-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Lecce?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 78%, Lecce 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cagliari) and 33% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Lecce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Lecce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cagliari's games and 42% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Lecce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Cagliari's recent games and 33% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Lecce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cagliari's recent matches and 69% of Lecce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 35, as Cagliari and Lecce drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.54 xG and Lecce 1.26 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.07 / defence 1.27 against Lecce attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 44% | Draw 26% | Lecce 31%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Lecce 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.29 PPG, Lecce 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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