Monza 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Frosinone.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Frosinone travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza in Serie A (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Monza have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Frosinone stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Monza) versus 0.90 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Monza's games and 60% of Frosinone's (from Monza's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Monza, 1 for Frosinone and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2024, ended Monza 3–2 Frosinone — a Monza win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 49% versus Frosinone 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 43% | Frosinone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.72 xG and Frosinone 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.002 / defence 1.265 | Frosinone attack 0.747 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.200. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monza's projected output up. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Monza's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Data: built from Monza's last 74 games and Frosinone's last 36.
Result probabilities: Monza 50% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 24%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 4.16. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Monza's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monza 60% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 50% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Monza 1.72 / Frosinone 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.002 / def 1.265 | Frosinone attack 0.747 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Monza (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Frosinone xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Monza vs Frosinone kick off?
Monza vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Frosinone?
Monza 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Monza vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Frosinone part of?
Monza vs Frosinone is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 50% chance of winning, Frosinone a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Monza and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monza vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Monza's attack at 1.00x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 74 games and Frosinone's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.85
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Monza xG
Total xG
2.85
1.13
Frosinone xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
23.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Monza and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Monza and 1.13 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza's recent record stands at 25W 22D 27L from 74 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 31W 19D 24L across 74 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.31 PPG, Frosinone on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monza have managed 13W 11D 13L from their last 37 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 10W 12D 15L across their last 37 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.43 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
Monza (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Monza vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 25W 22D 27L in their last 74 games (1.31 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 31W 19D 24L in their last 74 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Frosinone away?
Monza's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.35 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Monza or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Frosinone in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2022, when Frosinone won Frosinone 4-1 Monza.
Monza's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Frosinone?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 3, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Monza and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Monza 2-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Frosinone?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Frosinone 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Monza) and 46% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Frosinone in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Frosinone matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 57% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monza and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Monza's recent games and 46% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Monza's recent matches and 73% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Monza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Monza 0-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.72 xG and Frosinone 1.13 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Monza fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Frosinone attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 50% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 24%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 43%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.31 PPG, Frosinone 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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