Lecce 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bologna at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 5 as Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lecce 0.90 PPG, Bologna 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lecce's 30% rate and Bologna's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Lecce.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Bologna trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 40% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.98 xG and Bologna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.819 / defence 1.191 | Bologna attack 0.786 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.105. Data: 42 Lecce games / 42 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 32% | Draw 34% | Bologna 35%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Bologna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 30% | Bologna 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 32% | Draw 34% | Bologna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Lecce 0.98 / Bologna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.819 / def 1.191 | Bologna attack 0.786 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Bologna (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Bologna kick off?
Lecce vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Lecce vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Bologna part of?
Lecce vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 32% chance of winning, Bologna a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lecce and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 2 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Lecce and Bologna in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.82) and Bologna's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
32%
3.15
34%
2.98
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.01
1.03
Bologna xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lecce and 1.03 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 8W 11D 23L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 18W 14D 10L from 42 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.43 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 8W 11D 23L in their last 42 games (0.83 PPG), while Bologna have gone 18W 14D 10L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.86 PPG; Bologna away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Lecce or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lecce
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 38%, Bologna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lecce) and 52% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 48% of games; Bologna in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lecce's recent matches and 48% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lecce's recent games and 52% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Bologna tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bologna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.98 xG and Bologna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Bologna attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 32% | Draw 34% | Bologna 35%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.