Lazio 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lazio face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lazio and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lazio's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lazio at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Empoli (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lazio's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Empoli's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Lazio, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Empoli — Empoli have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2023, ended Lazio 2–0 Empoli — a Lazio win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Lazio and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Empoli — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 41% versus Empoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lazio 42% | Empoli 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.32 xG and Empoli 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.959 / defence 0.809 | Empoli attack 0.763 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.178. Empoli's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Lazio's last 73 games and Empoli's last 73.
Result probabilities: Lazio 50% | Draw 31% | Empoli 20%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.01 | Draw 3.27 | Empoli 5.10. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lazio's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 40% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 50% | Draw 31% | Empoli 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Lazio 1.32 / Empoli 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.959 / def 0.809 | Empoli attack 0.763 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Lazio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Empoli xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lazio vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Lazio vs Empoli kick off?
Lazio vs Empoli kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Lazio 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Lazio vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Empoli part of?
Lazio vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 50% chance of winning, Empoli a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lazio and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Lazio vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lazio's attack rating (0.96) and Empoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.76x) against Lazio's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Lazio's last 73 games and Empoli's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.27
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.05
0.73
Empoli xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
19.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lazio vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Lazio and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lazio and 0.73 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 73 games, going 39W 13D 21L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.03 PPG from 73 outings (18W 21D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 20W 7D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 36 away games (6W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
Lazio (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lazio
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Lazio vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Lazio and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 39W 13D 21L in their last 73 games (1.78 PPG), while Empoli have gone 18W 21D 34L in their last 73 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Empoli away?
Lazio's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.86 PPG; Empoli away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Lazio or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Lazio vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lazio have won 6, Empoli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2025: Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Empoli?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 42%, Empoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lazio) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Empoli in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lazio vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lazio and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lazio's recent matches and 47% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lazio and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lazio's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Lazio's recent matches and 69% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.32 xG and Empoli 0.73 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 50% | Draw 31% | Empoli 20%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 42%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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