Juventus 3-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventus face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lazio travel to Allianz Stadium to take on Juventus in Serie A (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Juventus have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Juventus have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Lazio — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lazio away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Juventus) versus 1.60 (Lazio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Juventus have won 1, Lazio 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Juventus 1–2 Lazio — a Lazio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Lazio trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 29% of Juventus's games and 37% of Lazio's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 34% | Lazio 44%). Note also that Lazio surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Juventus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.22 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.007 / defence 0.904 | Lazio attack 1.129 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.193. Data: built from Juventus's last 41 games and Lazio's last 41.
Result probabilities: Juventus 36% | Draw 27% | Lazio 36%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.75 | Draw 3.65 | Lazio 2.76. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Juventus 36% and Lazio 36%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 40% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 36% | Draw 27% | Lazio 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Juventus 1.22 / Lazio 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.007 / def 0.904 | Lazio attack 1.129 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Juventus and Lazio level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lazio xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Juventus vs Lazio kick off?
Juventus vs Lazio kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus 3 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Juventus vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Lazio part of?
Juventus vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 36% chance of winning, Lazio a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juventus and Lazio will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Juventus vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 41 games and Lazio's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.65
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.44
1.22
Lazio xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juventus and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Juventus and 1.22 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 24W 7D 10L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 23W 8D 10L from 41 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.93 PPG, Lazio on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventus have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 20 home games (13W 4D 3L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 12W 3D 5L from their last 20 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.54 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games; Lazio in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
Juventus (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Juventus vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and Lazio in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 24W 7D 10L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Lazio have gone 23W 8D 10L in their last 41 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Lazio away?
Juventus's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.15 PPG; Lazio away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Juventus or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Lazio in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when Juventus won Juventus 3-0 Lazio.
Juventus's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Juventus
3
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 3, Lazio have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Juventus 0-3 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Juventus 35% BTTS, Lazio 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Juventus) and 40% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lazio in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and Lazio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Juventus's recent matches and 30% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Juventus's recent games and 40% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Juventus's recent matches and 75% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Lazio 3-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.22 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Lazio attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 36% | Draw 27% | Lazio 36%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 34%, Lazio 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.93 PPG, Lazio 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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