Cagliari 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 42%, yet in-form Cagliari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cagliari vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Udinese meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Cagliari's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cagliari's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Udinese have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Cagliari's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Udinese's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Cagliari, 2 for Udinese and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2022, ended Cagliari 1–5 Udinese — a Udinese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 54% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 42% | Udinese 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Cagliari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.02 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.719 / defence 1.201 | Udinese attack 0.886 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.188. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 3 games and Udinese's last 41.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 28% | Udinese 42%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.35 | Draw 3.54 | Udinese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cagliari 70% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 28% | Udinese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cagliari 1.02 / Udinese 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.719 / def 1.201 | Udinese attack 0.886 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Udinese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Udinese xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Udinese kick off?
Cagliari vs Udinese kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Cagliari 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Cagliari vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Udinese part of?
Cagliari vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 30% chance of winning, Udinese a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cagliari and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cagliari vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.72x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.89x) against Cagliari's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 3 games and Udinese's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
30%
3.35
28%
3.54
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.28
1.26
Udinese xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.26 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 17D 9L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.17 PPG from 41 outings (11W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Cagliari against 1.17 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 11W 7D 2L across their last 20 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.17 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
Cagliari (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Cagliari vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Udinese in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 17D 9L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Udinese away?
Cagliari's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 2.00 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Udinese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Cagliari and Udinese, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won Cagliari 0-4 Udinese on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Cagliari
3
Draws
5
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Udinese?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 1, Udinese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Udinese 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 70%, Udinese 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cagliari) and 45% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Udinese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cagliari's games and 45% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cagliari's recent games and 45% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cagliari's recent matches and 55% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cagliari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Udinese finished level at 0-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.02 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 30% | Draw 28% | Udinese 42%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 42%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.51 PPG, Udinese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 4
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →