Inter 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter and Genoa meet at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inter have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Inter's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Inter, 0 for Genoa and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Genoa — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 44% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 59% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.87 xG and Genoa 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.370 / defence 0.962 | Genoa attack 0.844 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.244. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Inter games / 63 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 55% | Draw 27% | Genoa 18%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Inter (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Inter 80% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 55% | Draw 27% | Genoa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Inter 1.87 / Genoa 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.370 / def 0.962 | Genoa attack 0.844 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Inter (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Genoa xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Genoa kick off?
Inter vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Genoa?
Inter 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Inter vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Genoa part of?
Inter vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 55% chance of winning, Genoa a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Inter and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): Inter 2W | Draws 3 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Inter and Genoa in?
Inter (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.84x) against Inter's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.71
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Inter xG
Total xG
2.88
1.01
Genoa xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
36.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Inter and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Inter and 1.01 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Inter have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 45W 13D 5L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 19W 22D 22L from 63 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.35 PPG from 31 outings (22W 7D 2L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 10D 13L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inter are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.10 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Genoa in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 45W 13D 5L in their last 63 games (2.35 PPG), while Genoa have gone 19W 22D 22L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Genoa away?
Inter's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.35 PPG; Genoa away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Inter or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Genoa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Inter have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Inter
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Inter have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Genoa?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 52%, Genoa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Inter) and 42% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Inter's recent matches and 52% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Inter's recent games and 42% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and Genoa tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Genoa in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.87 xG and Genoa 1.01 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.37 / defence 0.96 against Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 55% | Draw 27% | Genoa 18%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 59%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.