Hellas Verona 0-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Lazio travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lazio trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 55% versus Lazio 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 57% | Lazio 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.08 xG and Lazio 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.812 / defence 1.335 | Lazio attack 1.041 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.299. Data: 58 Hellas Verona games / 58 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | Lazio 53%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 1.89. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 40% | Lazio 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | Lazio 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Hellas Verona 1.08 / Lazio 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.812 / def 1.335 | Lazio attack 1.041 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Lazio (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Lazio xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Lazio kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Hellas Verona 0 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Lazio part of?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 21% chance of winning, Lazio a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hellas Verona and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Record (7 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 3 | Lazio 3W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.81) and Lazio's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
21%
4.78
26%
3.78
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.89
1.80
Lazio xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
3%
29.06
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.80 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 15W 12D 31L from 58 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 29W 10D 19L across 58 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 9W 7D 13L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 13W 3D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.43 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 12D 31L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Lazio have gone 29W 10D 19L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.17 PPG; Lazio away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2025, when Lazio won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 59%, Lazio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Hellas Verona and 55% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hellas Verona's games and 62% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Hellas Verona's matches and 55% of Lazio's.
Do Hellas Verona and Lazio tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lazio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Hellas Verona 0-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.08 xG and Lazio 1.80 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.81 / defence 1.33 against Lazio attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | Lazio 53%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 57%, Lazio 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.