Hellas Verona 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 68% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Fiorentina have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Fiorentina have the stronger record — 4 wins to Hellas Verona's 1, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Hellas Verona 1–3 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 52% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Fiorentina 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.695 / defence 1.616 | Fiorentina attack 1.130 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.230. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.616 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fiorentina's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 63 games and Fiorentina's last 63.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 9.29 | Draw 4.64 | Fiorentina 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (68%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Fiorentina 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 40% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hellas Verona 0.83 / Fiorentina 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.695 / def 1.616 | Fiorentina attack 1.130 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Fiorentina xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 11% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 68% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.69) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.13x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.62x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 63 games and Fiorentina's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
11%
9.29
22%
4.64
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.08
2.25
Fiorentina xG
9.29
11%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
11%
9.46
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
1%
87.91
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 2.25 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 13D 34L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.62 PPG from 63 outings (29W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 9W 7D 15L across their last 31 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.62 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 16W 13D 34L in their last 63 games (0.97 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 29W 15D 19L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.10 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 55%, Fiorentina 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hellas Verona) and 42% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 32% of games; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 48% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 42% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 81% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Fiorentina 2.25 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.69 / defence 1.62 against Fiorentina attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 11% | Draw 22% | Fiorentina 68%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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