Parma 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Parma register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bologna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Bologna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bologna trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 68% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 56% | Bologna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.11 xG and Bologna 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.846 / defence 1.366 | Bologna attack 1.057 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.270. Data: 25 Parma games / 62 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Bologna 52%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 1.92. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Parma 80% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Bologna 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Parma 1.11 / Bologna 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.846 / def 1.366 | Bologna attack 1.057 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Bologna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Bologna xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Bologna kick off?
Parma vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Bologna?
Parma 2 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Parma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Bologna part of?
Parma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 21% chance of winning, Bologna a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Parma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Parma and Bologna in?
Parma (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
21%
4.85
27%
3.68
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Parma xG
Total xG
2.94
1.83
Bologna xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
3%
30.31
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Parma and 1.83 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 21D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.76 PPG from 62 outings (28W 25D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.50 PPG, Bologna on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 13W 10D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.45 points per game from 31 outings (10W 15D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.48 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Bologna in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 24W 21D 17L in their last 62 games (1.50 PPG), while Bologna have gone 28W 25D 9L in their last 62 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Bologna away?
Parma's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.58 PPG; Bologna away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Parma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Bologna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Bologna?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Parma at 74%, Bologna at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Parma) and 55% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Parma's games and 58% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Parma's recent games and 55% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Bologna tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bologna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Bologna 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.11 xG and Bologna 1.83 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Bologna attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Bologna 52%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Parma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 56%, Bologna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.50 PPG, Bologna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.